Logical Errors

Logical Fallacies

Faulty Arguments

Cause and Effect

False Cause

The fallacy of false cause works in a similar way to the post hoc fallacy, but it usually involves a more general interpretation of the cause-and-effect relationship between two events or processes. My son was born on the day of George Washington's birthday. When the government decided to promote the policy of long weekends and announced that the holiday would fall on the nearest Monday in February, Steve became somewhat concerned. He thought that perhaps the government had changed his birthday. To a ten-year-old, such things seem a good deal more complex than they seem to adults. The following story about a mathematician also illustrates the false cause fallacy. Because this fellow traveled extensively in connection with his work, he worried about the possibility of a bomb being placed on a plane in which he might ride. His estimates of the probability of having a bomb on board came to about one in a thousand, which he considered unacceptable odds. But one day he had a flash of inspiration. He estimated the chances of there being two bombs on board and came up with odds of about one in a million. Finding these odds much more to his liking, thereafter he always carried a bomb in his luggage whenever he traveled.

Parent Topics:

Map of Logical Errors