Logical Errors

Logical Fallacies

Faulty Arguments

Relevance

Misuse of Statistics

Misuse of statistics depends on the characteristic tendency of many people to become intimidated and unsure of themselves in the face of numerical data. Some people will give in to almost any conclusion offered in connection with impressive statistics. Two judges were philosophizing as they walked out of the courthouse after a hard day's work. One said, "Well, I figure I've set free just about the same number of guilty men as the number of innocent men I've hanged. So I guess it all averages out." This kind of fallacy of averages also befell the proverbial statistician who drowned while wading across a river that had an average depth of two feet. Similarly, a pregnant woman went to see her doctor in a state of extreme anxiety. She had heard that one out of every five babies born in the world is Chinese. Since she had already had four Caucasian babies, she wanted to know whether her fifth would be an Oriental. In a more serious vein, one of the most famous statistical blunders in modern times involved the prediction that Alf Landon would defeat Franklin Roosevelt for the presidency in 1936. The Literary Digest conducted a large opinion poll, which showed Landon the likely winner. However, in the election Roosevelt won by a healthy margin. The Digest's pollsters had selected a large number of names from the telephone directories of major cities around the country. This produced a highly "skewed" sample, which included only city dwellers with incomes high enough to afford telephones. It eliminated virtually all investigation of the rural population, most of whom apparently favored Roosevelt.

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Map of Logical Errors